The Best of Creative Computing Volume 2 (published 1977)

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Computing Power to the People - A Conservative Ten-Year Projection (introduction, low-cost microelectronics, conservative projection)
by Tien Chi Chen

graphic of page

Computing Power to the People - A Conservative Ten-Year Projection 
by Tien Chi Chen*
IBM San Jose Research Laboratory
San Jose, Califonia 95193

ABSTRACT

The wide availability of low-cost computing power through LSI should lower the
communication barriers between the machine and the human user. Intelligent
terminals will intercede between the machine and the programmer. The
nonprogrammer user will be able to make useful queries of general databases.
Man-machine interaction should be the fastest growth area in the coming decade.
The most important development in education
should be to expose younger minds to realistic problemsolving.

1. INTRODUCTION

The computer is said to have heralded the second industrial revolution, towards
freedom of mankind from drudgery. This freedom has not been realized; the
majority of the public have no direct contact with computer systems, and machine
users are still adapting themselves to the machine.

Large-scale integration (LSI), or more appropriately, low-cost microelectronics,
promises to make a definite start during the next decade.

2. LOW-COST MICROELECTRONICS

information in the abstract has no mass; its processor and storage can reside in
the tiniest physical carrier. But probably the most optimistic computing
prophets in 1950 were unprepared for the tremendous shrinking of circuit size in
the past quarter-century. The consequent sharply lowered manufacturing cost, in
a competitive industrial environment, has led to a drastic price reduction for
machine intelligence.

This is most evident in the field-effect transistor (FET) technology, where high
density, low power consumption, and low production cost in small packages have
brought the pocket calculators, selling at a mere 2% of the price of their
counterpart a decade ago, the desk-top calculator. FET microprocessors executing
five hundred thousand instructions per second have long been available. Recently
the memory density of five million bits per square inch has been reported for a
8192-bit chip, which dissipates 25 milliwatts with a 90 nenosecond access time
(1). The trend towards higher density, greater speed and even lower cost is
continuing unabated.

A generalized definition of LSI should include the high density, low cost
"e|ectronic disks," which use no
mechanical parts and hence enjoy much faster access than their mechanical
counterparts. Candidates for the electronic disks include charge-couple devices
and magnetic bubbles, both under active development.

While it is safe to predict the occurrence of at least one unanticipated
revolutionary idea, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint this occurrence.

3. A CONSERVATIVE PROJECTION

The following is a projection of the computer scene for the next decade,
assuming the steady progress of LSI. There is no intention to cover all aspects
of computing evenly; for a more comprehensive projection see (2).

While it is safe to predict the occurrence of at least one unanticipated
revolutionary idea, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint this occurrence. The
projection here, based only on extrapolations of known trends, is necessarily
conservative. On the other hand, the assumption that most of the software
problems will be solved in time, is not shared by many expert programmers.

Claims will be made that the wide availability of compact computing power will
lead to global equipment upgrading, increased rapport between programmer and
machine, large data base for untrained users, effective man-machine interaction
for intellectual tasks, and general mind-sharpening in the classroom.

[image]VACCUM TUBES TRANSISTORS SSI MSI LSI
100 10 1 .1 .01 .001 .0001
PRICE PER GATE (CENTS)
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
YEAR
The cost of logic gates is on an exponential decline.

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